Has Mike Trout Already Peaked

Mike Trout has put up an amazing couple of seasons in Major League Baseball, not just for someone as young as he is, 22, but for anyone. His 19.62 wins above replacement (WAR) over his first two full seasons ranks as the 36th best two-year stretch for any batter ever. Only nine batters have had a better stretch by the age of 25, and they’re essentially a who’s who of Hall of Famers: Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Jimmie Foxx and Willie Mays. The list of players who put up better numbers at an earlier age doesn’t have any names on it.Conventional wisdom seems to be that Trout, an outfielder for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, is only going to get better. Much of that analysis relies explicitly on the traditional aging curve or on similar logic: MLB players and prospects typically improve rapidly through their late teens and early 20s, peaking around age 27. Trout was 21 last season, ergo, he has several years of improvement in his future.But regression to the mean dictates that the better the performance you’re looking at, the less likely it is to be duplicated. Players who put up huge numbers like Trout’s (or anywhere close) this early in their careers have a very high likelihood of having All Star- and/or Hall of Fame-quality careers. But how often do they improve on these initial breakout performances?I’ve taken all the players who put up more than 15 WAR over a two-year period at any point in their careers and broken them down by the age when they first accomplished the feat. Then I asked a simple question: Did they ever manage a better two-year period?The size of the bubbles represent how many players accomplished the “15 WAR in two years” milestone, and the y value of the bubbles show the percentage of those players who surpassed that milestone.As you can see, the odds of someone Trout’s age improving are ostensibly 100 percent, but that bubble represents a single data point: Alex Rodriguez. If you move to the much larger group of players between ages 22 and 24, the odds drop into the 50 percent range.On the other hand, some players who never managed a stronger two-year stretch still managed a strong third season immediately after their initial two-year breakout. In such cases, they may set a new two-year “peak” that overlaps the original. Thus, while never replicating their original two-year performance, they end up with a better two years on the books. This is the most likely time for a player to establish a new “peak,” because pulling it off only takes one well-timed season instead of two.Of the 75 players who achieved 15-plus WAR over two seasons, only 22 managed to replicate or exceed the feat later in their career. But an additional 15 improved their benchmark the following season. Counting these cases, the odds of a player’s two-year performance being his two-year peak drop substantially. Factoring this in and cleaning up the data a bit (I put the players in rolling 3-year age groups) gives us a result like this:For Trout’s case, there are a few other factors to consider:Cutting both ways: Trout’s numbers are higher than average in his age group. This makes it more likely that he’s a uniquely great player, but it also makes the numbers inherently less likely to be surpassed.Cutting in his favor: Trout was 21 last season, and his group covers players age 21 to 23. This gives him a slightly longer career ahead, and thus more chances to put up better seasons. Further, having pulled off such great numbers at such an early age probably increases the chances that he’s truly special. But there’s not really enough data to demonstrate this effect.Cutting against him: Trout is probably less likely to achieve a new two-year peak this year, because the strongest of the two seasons in this run was the first. Improving on his peak will require him posting better than 10.8 WAR — a feat which has happened only 22 times before, six of which were by Babe Ruth. (Also, though outside the scope of this post, it’s possible that the aging curve is no longer as favorable as it used to be).All things considered, the answer to whether Trout has peaked yet is “probably not,” though I think it’s far from being as much of a certainty as many people seem to think. Even some of the Hall of Famers mentioned above peaked early, and Trout’s start has been so strong that he could potentially do the same and still end up joining them. read more

LeBron And Kobe Probably Got A Lot More AllStar Votes Than They

On Thursday, the NBA announced the final results of fan balloting for the 2015 All-Star Game, to be held in New York City on Feb. 15. The fans’ votes determined which players — specifically, two guards and three frontcourt players — will start for each conference. (Reserve selections are made by the league’s head coaches and will be announced next Thursday.)Some of the results were beyond dispute. For instance, Golden State’s Stephen Curry led all NBA players with more than 1.5 million votes, an honor thoroughly befitting the current league leader in Real Plus-Minus (RPM). Others were less supportable; Kobe Bryant garnered more votes than all but three players despite sub-replacement level play this season, while Carmelo Anthony was elected an Eastern Conference starter despite his Knicks’ well-documented awfulness.The fans have a long history of casting votes for big names playing subpar ball, and it’s clear there’s not a perfect relationship between All-Star voting and actual on-court value. To see what kind of link exists between the two, I plotted vote totals against RPM wins above replacement (WAR) for the 50 players whose results were released Thursday. For a sense of how many WAR are generally needed to earn a given number of votes, I also ran a local regression between the two numbers.The relationship between voting and WAR isn’t particularly strong, especially for players with fewer than 5 WAR. Once a player is beyond that territory, it appears he can at least begin to grab voters’ attention with better play. But for players below that threshold, performance can be lost in a sea of other confounding factors.Bearing in mind that rather large caveat, the most underrated player in the sample was the Portland Trail Blazers’ Damian Lillard; his 7.4 WAR appears to deserve nearly 800,000 votes, but he amassed less than half that. Similarly, Paul Millsap of the Atlanta Hawks was picked on only about 122,000 ballots, despite a WAR total that would seemingly justify over four times as many votes.At the other end of the spectrum, Bryant certainly looks overvalued — his 1.15 million votes were about four times what would be expected from his WAR total. But the player with the biggest disparity between actual and predicted voting this season is Kobe’s old rival LeBron James. James’s 5.5 WAR seems to correlate with about 412,000 votes — roughly the same as what the Chicago Bulls’ Jimmy Butler compiled (and deserved) in the balloting — but James’s actual total of 1.47 million beat that prediction by more than a million votes.Here’s each player’s vote total compared to what would be expected based on WAR: read more

Daniel Amartey signs new Leicester contract

first_imgLeicester City midfielder Daniel Amartey has put pen to paper on a new three-and-a-half year deal that will keep him at the club till the summer of 2022.Amartey joined Leicester City in January 2016 from Danish club Copenhagen for a fee believed to be around the region of £6 million.The Ghana international midfielder’s current contract was due to expire in 18 months and has today extended his stay at the King Power Stadium.#lcfc is delighted to confirm that defender Daniel Amartey has signed a new three-and-a-half-year contract! 🦊More on #Amartey2022 ▶️ https://t.co/GeKWOf0nB6 pic.twitter.com/dyt1KEiyEV— Leicester City (@LCFC) December 20, 2018Harry Maguire, Manchester UnitedLiverpool legend Nicol slams Harry Maguire’s Man United form Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Steve Nicol believes Harry Maguire has made some “horrendous mistakes” recently, and has failed to find his best form since joining Manchester United.“I am very happy to sign this contract at Leicester City,” Amartey told the club’s website.“I am a simple and easy guy. I work hard and I focus. By God’s grace, my recovery is getting better and I have to be strong when I come back. I have to be ready, for the Club and for the manager.”The 23-year-old will miss Leicester’s clash with Chelsea on Saturday as he’s currently sidelined with a broken leg and is expected to return in the spring.last_img read more

Lawmakers want to stop a future filled with smart devices and bad

first_img 1 Now playing: Watch this: Legislation should require basic security standards, like the California internet of things law does, and Geiger also recommended consumer awareness programs, in the same way that energy efficient products have an “Energy Star” sticker on them.”The idea of me telling my mother to go into her router to check for a default password and check and see if it encrypts your personal information, these things are not realistic,” Geiger said. “What I can tell her is, ‘look for a seal, look for a label.'”Michael Bergman, the CTA’s vice president of technology and standards, disagreed with the label approach, telling lawmakers that many people have “label fatigue” when they’re buying technology.The CTA is a trade organization that represents more than 2,000 tech companies, and hosts CES. Bergman said the group has been working on addressing internet of things security concerns, and said that private companies are moving as fast as possible to fix these issues. It’s not fast enough, said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut. “There is a tidal wave of anger and alarm building out there, with very good reason,” the senator said to Bergman. “The pace is simply too slow.”Under the current opt-in model, there are no legal penalties for weak security standards, lawmakers pointed out. Blumenthal said that this approach is “failing,” and that lawmakers need to establish standards for companies to follow. While a federal law on internet of things security has been proposed, it hasn’t made much progress. Without a law, security experts warned that the world would be filled with vulnerable devices without fixes. “Unsecured IoT devices will be like the new asbestos,” Geiger said. “We will build them into our environments, only to have to rip them back out years later, and wonder why our predecessors did not have the forethought to ensure basic security from the start.” Comment Politics Smart Home Security Share your voicecenter_img Tags Landlords are making apartments into smart homes, whether… “Internet of things” devices are set to spike in popularity. Lawmakers are worried that they’ll bring security issues, too. James Martin/CNET Before smart devices fill up millions of homes, a Senate hearing on Tuesday looked to figure out how to keep them safe from hackers.”Sound security practices must keep pace with the expansion of the internet of things in order to mitigate these threats,” Sen. Dan Sullivan said in his opening statement. Sullivan, a Republican from Alaska, is chairman of the commerce committee’s subcommittee on security. Lawmakers have attempted to tackle security problems with connected devices through several hearings and proposed laws that would set basic standards for these gadgets. By 2020, analysts expect connected devices to jump up to 20.4 billion units, and security experts warn that without a baseline level of security, this rapid growth will mean a larger risk of cyberattacks.Cyberattacks on smart devices can show results in real time, as hacked Nest Cams are used to blare hoax nuclear attack warnings, and smart TVs are hijacked to promote PewDiePie videos. In other cases, these hacked connected devices are used quietly, as part of massive botnets or cryptomining gadgets.   Connected devices don’t have any regulations requiring basic security measures, but that could be changing. In September, lawmakers in California passed the country’s first internet of things security law, which requires “reasonable” features like ending default passwords on devices. The hearing featured witnesses from the US Chamber of Commerce, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, cybersecurity company Rapid7, the Broadband Association and the Consumer Technology Association.”While IoT holds a promise of revolutionizing the way we live and we work, we should also be wary, because IoT also stands for the internet of threats,” said Sen. Ed Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts. Harley Geiger, a director of public policy for Rapid7, called on lawmakers to pass a federal law on security standards for smart devices. “There is a tidal wave of anger and alarm building out there, with very good reason.” Sen. Richard Blumenthal 2:46last_img read more

Van plows into Toronto crowd killing 10

first_imgThe front end damage of the van that the driver used to hit several pedestrians in Toronto, Ontario, on Monday where at least 10 people were killed and 16 others wounded when a driver rammed his rental van into a crowd of pedestrians in downtown. Photo: AFPAt least 10 people have died after a man plowed a white rental van into a crowd of pedestrians in Canada’s biggest city Toronto on Monday, in what police dubbed a “deliberate” attack.The incident took place in broad daylight around 16 kilometers (10 miles) from a conference center hosting a meeting of G7 ministers, but officials said they had no evidence of a link to the event.“The actions definitely looked deliberate,” Toronto Police Chief Mark Saunders told journalists.Ralph Goodale, the minister of public security, added that “on the basis of all available information at the present time, there would appear to be no national security connection to this particular incident.”“Horrible day in Toronto,” he had posted earlier on Twitter. “Senseless violence takes heavy toll.”Police arrested a suspect at the scene—who police identified later as 25-year-old Alex Minassian from a northern Toronto suburb—of the attack, whose initial death toll of nine jumped to 10 after one person succumbed to injuries.Fifteen people remained in hospitals throughout the city, Saunders said, adding that local, provincial and federal investigators were probing the case.At the scene, at least three bodies could be seen under orange sheets and a long stretch of road was sealed off with police incident tape.The suspect and a police officer faced off, their guns drawn. The suspect eventually surrendered his weapon and was taken into custody.Vehicle attacks have been carried out to deadly effect by extremists in a number of capitals and major cities, including London, Paris, New York and Nice.Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said the G7 meeting would continue as planned into Tuesday, with officials discussing ways to secure democratic societies from foreign interference.“The work of the ministers obviously goes on. This is a very sad day for the people of Toronto and the people of Canada,” she said.‘Really fast’Officers were called to the scene—on Yonge Street at the corner with Finch Avenue—around 1:30 pm (1730 GMT), police said.A white rental van with a dented front bumper was stopped on the sidewalk of a major intersection, surrounded by police vehicles.“He was going really fast,” witness Alex Shaker told CTV television.“All I could see was just people one by one getting knocked out, knocked out, one by one,” Shaker said. “There are so many people lying down on the streets.”Another witness, Jamie Eopni, told local Toronto television station CP24: “It was crashing into everything. It destroyed a bench. If anybody was on that street, they would have been hit on the sidewalk.”‘Deliberate’ but no terror linkThough the act seemed “deliberate,” officials did not identify a terror link.Canada has only rarely been the scene of terror attacks.In October, a man stabbed a police officer in the western city of Edmonton before slamming his van into a group of pedestrians, hurting four people.And in Quebec in October 2014, a Canadian man ran over two soldiers in a parking lot with his car, killing one of them. The driver was shot dead by police when he attacked them with a knife.In March 2016, a Canadian who claimed to have radical Islamist sympathies attacked two soldiers at a military recruitment center in Toronto.last_img read more

Advance train ticket sale from 29 July Minister

first_imgRailways minister Md Nurul Islam Sujon speaks at a briefing at the Rail Bhaban on Tuesday. Photo: UNBBangladesh Railway will start selling advance train tickets on 29 July on the occasion of Eid-ul-Azha.Half of the tickets will be sold at ticket counters while the rest online, railways minister Md Nurul Islam Sujon said at a briefing at the Rail Bhaban on Tuesday, reports UNB.He said tickets will be sold at five spots – Kamalapur, Airport, Banani and Tejgaon railway stations and Fulbaria in the capital.The advance tickets of 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 August will be available on 29, 30, 31, and 31 July and 1 and 2 August respectively.Eid-ul-Azha, the second largest religious festival of Muslims, will be celebrated on 12 August, subject to the appearance of the moon.Besides, the return tickets for the journey of 14 August will be available on 5 August and for 15 August on 6 August, 16 August on 17 on 7 August, 17 August on 8 August and for 18 August on 9 August.The sale of tickets will begin at 8:00am and each passenger will be able to buy maximum four tickets.Besides, eight pairs of special trains will run on different routes on the occasion of Eid.last_img read more

Celebrating the years of selfless service

first_imgIt was a proud moment for the 63 Cavalry or ‘Tresath’, when it celebrated its Diamond Jubilee somewhere in the western sector.  In a unique ceremony titled ‘Heritage Review’, the present generation of Cavalry men paid tribute to their elders and Heritage equipment which was reviewed by Lt Gen KJ Singh, GOC-in-C Western Command.The parade was set alive by the vintage tanks and armoured cars paraded in running condition which had been consigned to junkyards and forgotten by many. The armoured vehicles included the World War-II vintage American Cadillac tank ‘Stuart –VI’, the British Humber armoured car and Daimler armoured car popularly known as ‘Dingo’. But the showstopper of the event was the American M-113 Bradley which caught every eye as this equipment steered across the parade ground, being first of its kind to do so on Indian soil. Surprisingly, the Regiment was also the first to use this equipment before the Americans, inducted it in their inventory.   Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’The Regiment, which was raised in the princely state of Alwar, Rajasthan, has participated in UN Peace keeping operations in Congo from 1961 to 1962, has earned two VrC, seven Sena medals and 10 Mention-in-Dispatches.The appearance of ‘Tresath tanks’ from four cardinal directions coupled with the shock and awe it unleashed, earned the unit an epithet of the “Ghost Regiment” from the enemy. Tresath tanks were the only armoured column that reached the capital, Dacca with its T-55 and PT-76 tanks. It was bestowed with the Battle Honour of Bogra and Theatre Honour of East Pakistan and earned eight gallantry awards. Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with Netflix‘Tresath’ has aided civil administration on a number of occasions, notably during 1992 floods in Punjab and Gujarat and Sikkim earthquake in 2001 and 2011.  The Regiment has also combated the menace of terrorism in Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir and the North Eastern States. On the completion of 25 years of meritorious service in 1982, the Regiment was presented Guidon by the President of India- Late Neelam Sanjiva Reddy for its yeoman service to the nation.  ‘Tresath’ has had the distinction of earning 121 honours and awards which include PVSMs, Veer Chakras and Sena medals. Apart from other functions, a special Sainik Sammelan was also held.last_img read more

How to naturally purify home office air

first_imgEarlier, houseplants were only considered as the province of an older generation, that too for the one who had time, knowledge and space to tend them. However, they are now also popular with a younger and cooler crowd. If you or anyone in your family has allergies, smokes or just wants to breathe fresher, cleaner air in their homes. Experts tell about the plants that purify the air around you, plants that act as green and long lasting gifts, as well as which specific pollutant each one targets and removes. Also Read – Add new books to your shelf-Palms: Our spirit boosters The hardy houseplants are easy to grow and are perfect boosters for lifting people’s spirits. They are the ultimate natural air purifiers and remove formaldehyde, benzene, and carbon monoxide from the surroundings. The freshness spread by them is distracting from otherwise drab surroundings. -Peace lilies: Natural toxin removers Peace lilies spread freshness for a longer period of time. They thrive in the shade in temperatures below 12 degrees Celsius and remove harmful toxins like acetone, ammonia, benzene, ethyl acetate, formaldehyde, methyl alcohol, trichloroethylene, and xylene. Also Read – Over 2 hours screen time daily will make your kids impulsive-Ferns: Natural history Ferns are not as fascinating but have survived since pre-historic times. Their soft feathery leaves contribute to increasing their preference. Also, by freeing the air from toluene and xylene, they help us get rid of air pollution. -Schefflera: Great investment plants Schefflera is the ones with glossy, sturdy-looking oval leaves that almost look unreal because of their waxy shine. Adding to this, they also soak up nasty toxins like benzene, formaldehyde, and toluene so, like palms, they are good for households where there is a smoker. -Anthuriums: Thoughtful present for a workplace Anthuriums are not just pretty, they also make lovely and long lasting gifts because of their exotic looking blooms. They are a thoughtful present for a work place with their large and dark leaves that suck up ammonia, formaldehyde, toluene and xylene.last_img read more

February 17 2016The Arcosanti Cafe would like a m

first_imgFebruary 17, 2016The Arcosanti Cafe would like a mural designed for the back wall behind our serving area. This is the wall separating our serving tables from our food prep area and is seen by everyone eating at the cafe. The cafe would like a newly painted mural on this wall in the style of Soleri.[text by cafe staff member Pete Seiter]This mural could be painted and textured, however it also needs to be easily cleaned and sanitized as this is a food service area. We would also like space on this wall to display the menu for the day, currently we are using two large white boards, however we would like to have chalkboard paint on a part of the wall to display the menu in the future. The cafe would like the mural to be designed in a way that fits well within the Arcosanti aesthetic, yet something that is also able to uniquely identify the space as the Arcosanti Cafe.The paintable surface on this wall is 48.5 inches in height and 226.5 inches in length. The requested space for the chalkboard paint is about 24 inches in height and 83 inches in length, positioned near the top right corner of the wall; this is the space directly behind our steam tables and allows us to display what hot dish is being served in each steam table. The competion closes on March 18. 2016 and the winner will be announced on April 1. 2016.last_img read more